We Could Be In For A "Dynamic Breakup"!

They say, “Breaking up is hard to do”. That is the case in both romance and Alaskan rivers. But, like relationships, not all ice breakups are the same. In fact, the NOAA/National Weather Service's Alaska Region shared recently that there are two distinct types of Ice-Jam breakups.

The first, and less severe, is called “Thermal Breakup” and involves rotten (candled) ice, low snow pack, and a warm sunny April that allows the rivers to gradually give way to spring, causing minimal flooding.

The second is a “Dynamic Breakup.” This is the kind of breakup that caused massive damage in Eagle, AK in 2009, and Galena, AK in 2013, and the devastating flooding in Circle and Crooked Creek, AK in 2023. These Dynamic Breakups typically contain ice that remains hard and resistant to breaking up and follow cold springs and rapid warm-ups. Also, above-average snowpacks.

According to Service Coordination Hydrologist Kyle Van Peursem of the Alaska/Pacific River Forecast Center, the spring of 2026 points in the direction of a “Dynamic Breakup”.

Recently, he shared the presentation he gave last Wednesday at the State Emergency Operation Center at JBER.

In Alaska, we are very lucky to have a small but mighty group of dedicated weather professionals who are relentless at making Alaskans weather-ready via the NOAA/National Weather Service's Alaska Region.

This team has been at it for decades, and their incredible service spans from the rainforests of Metlakatla to the sea ice of Utqiagvik. You can keep your fingers on the pulse of their insight and direction by subscribing to their YouTube channel. This channel features daily Alaska Statewide forecasts, along with Marine, Aviation, and summaries of the prior month's weather. Click here to do that.

Stay safe, everyone!

Blake Messer

Alaska Means Business